人工智慧
387 12 月 2025

IBM執行長示警：AGI不可能回本，當前技術成功率僅0~1％


IBM。圖／美聯社

全球科技巨頭正瘋狂砸錢擴充AI基礎設施，但IBM執行長Arvind Krishna罕見潑下一大盆冷水。他直言，以目前技術與成本結構來看，全球為追求通用人工智慧（AGI）而投入的近8兆美元資本支出「在財務上不可能獲利」，並警告AGI在既有路徑下的成功機率僅0~1%。

根據媒體報導，Krishna近期在《Decoder》播客上表示，科技公司正以「不惜一切代價」的方式加碼算力基礎建設，帶動輝達等AI晶片需求飆升，然而，根據財務模型顯示，這場全球性算力軍備競賽具有極高的經濟風險。

Krishna指出，目前全球AI業界對AGI計算量的承諾已達到100吉瓦（GW），依照今日一座1 GW資料中心約80億美元的建置成本推算，總投入資本支出高達 8兆美元。

他直言，這筆龐大投資光利息就需要一年產生8,000億美元獲利才能覆蓋，「這不可能達到」。

他同時提醒，資料中心設備存在極高折舊風險，「所有設備必須在五年內全數汰換。」此說法與「大空頭」投資人Michael Burry對AI廠商折舊壓力的警告不謀而合。

Krishna的分析與業界氣氛形成鮮明對比。Meta、Google、Microsoft與OpenAI 均持續暴增資本支出，OpenAI執行長奧特曼更呼籲全球大幅提升能源供給來支撐更大型的AI模型。

然而Krishna認為，業界對AGI的信念遠超過現實基礎。他表示：「我理解他們追逐的目標，但我不認同。」他估計在沒有突破性技術的前提下，AGI成功率只有0~1%。

儘管對AGI投資回報悲觀，Krishna並未唱衰AI整體價值。他強調，AI技術已在企業應用中展現巨大潛力，可以釋放數兆美元等級的生產力。

至於未來突破方向，他認為僅靠大語言模型（LLM）不可能實現AGI，必須有新的技術路線，例如融合硬知識與 LLM。但當被問及此路線能否真正抵達AGI時，他依舊保留：「即便那樣，我也只能說『也許』

全文摘自 工商時報 IBM執行長示警：全球8兆美元追逐 AGI「不可能回本」當前技術成功率僅0~1％

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